Description: An Overview of Stochastic Simulation modeling techniques and usages

Description: The article explores impact of resetting cap vs static cap choice for the GLWB rider for a Fixed Index Annuity for a Point to Point. Moreover, analysis of a Monthly Sum Cap is provided showing impacts of particular choices of market models (e.g. Black, Heston, Bates) used to price this deal.

Description: Presented at August 2011 Actuarial Research Conference. Summarizes the Heston model, discusses hedging equity indexed annuities, and provides numerical results of the Black-Scholes and Heston hedging strategies.

Description: The April 2016 Issue of The Modeling Platform

Description: The series expansion of a probability density function, known to actuaries by Esscher's name and to statisticians as the saddlepoint approximation, typically gets integrated to approximate probability values under the density, with a location parameter in the expansion chosen to optimize convergence of the integrated series. We review the general form, the accuracy and the derivation of the Esscher approximation. Then we propose using related series expansions for the derivative of a probability density function to approximate the value of the point of maximum likelihood for the density. The key is to make the value of the location parameter an unknown and assume it to be the point of maximum likelihood, which leads to a tractable optimization problem to find its value.

Description: This session presents a summary of actuarial and potential uses of stochastic modeling for health actuaries. Three case studies are presented: rating health plan reimbursement provisions, developing claim liabilities, and defining appropriate reinsurance levels. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, No. 1, Session 18

Description: This session covers stochastic modeling processes currently in use and explores others that may be beneficial to health actuaries. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 31, No. 2, Session 76

Description: This paper introduces a rich stochastic modeling framework for understanding risks in multiple-decrement contracts. The example in the paper is a 20-year Term insurance contract. Not only are mortality and lapsation considered stochastic, but the parameters governing them are. For example, mortality risk is composed of four risk elements, including error generated in the underwriting process, volatility around the best estimate, catastrophic events that impact mortality, and the trend in mortality improvement or deterioration. When stochastically modeled, the relative contribution and risk profile of each risk element can be evaluated. Generating stochastic mortality results provides a distribution of results that an organization faces and the severity and incidence of the tail events.

Description: This paper presents an introduction to collective risk theory. In collective risk theory one seeks to investigate directly the risk enterprise as a whole. Primary interest is focused not upon the gains, losses, or claims from individual policies but upon the amount of total claims or the total gain arising from all the policies in the portfolio considered. Followed by several discussion papers submitted.